2024: The Year Real Craft Whiskey Delivers
Todd Leopold standing in his dunnage warehouse at Leopold Bros distillery
There was a moment in time (back around 2012) when newspapers from New York to Spokane were heralding the American craft whiskey revolution. I remember it well. As the spirits buyer for K&L Wine Merchants in San Francisco, I was doing my best to keep up with all the new producers, taste as much of the new whiskey as possible, and filter out the good from the bad for my customers. It was a heady time for retailers like myself!
A few years later, however, much of the enthusiasm surrounding the explosion of craft whiskey began to falter, mostly due to shady upstarts run by “master distillers” who had no experience distilling anything, let alone whiskey, and were trying to cash in on the momentum. The market became flooded with one and two year old whiskies that cost ten times more than they should, many of them using smaller barrels in an attempt to mature their whiskies faster. As time went on, opinions from enthusiasts and professional journalists alike spelled out the glaring problem quite clearly: most craft whiskey sucked.
As a result of the online backlash, consumer momentum soon shifted back to longstanding American distillers in a major way, and by the end of the decade it was in full swing. When I left retail in 2018 to pursue other ventures, MGP-distilled whiskey was considered a pariah among many serious consumers, seemingly everywhere and uninteresting as a result. Yet, when I came back to help a Los Angeles-based retailer in 2020, it was all the rage again, with consumers falling over themselves to locate older, cask strength expressions.
Given the market’s preference for larger producers and the movement away from craft distillers, independent labels began popping up everywhere, started by would-be whiskey entrepreneurs, or even groups of friends who pooled their money together to purchase mature stock from companies like Bardstown Bourbon Company in Kentucky, as well as the aforementioned MGP. The pandemic lockdown only accelerated this investment with everyone stuck at home in search of their next hobby. Guys off the street began investing in Bourbon, dropping tens of thousands of dollars into new make and warehousing contracts, believing that the industrial boom would last another decade at least, giving them the opportunity to cash out when their barrels came of age.
In 2024, however, things are starting to look a bit different and the cracks in the NDP (non-distiller producer) facade are beginning to show. Do a search for cask strength 8+ year old Bourbon online and you’ll find a plethora of independently-bottled options between the $75-$100 mark that aren’t moving as fast as retailers would hope. Snoop around social media and you’ll find public conversations between Bourbon investors, each trying to unload their inventory before the bulk market dips any further. Don’t look now, but the momentum is starting to shift once again.
And where is it shifting? I believe it’s gravitating back to the craft whiskey producers who patiently laid down their barrels and waited for this exact moment. In 2024, the market is going to be hit with a plethora of American whiskies it’s never seen before, with age statements of 8 years and older, from small distillers who planned for this day to come. On top of that, many of these whiskies are going to be more interesting, more flavorful, and more affordable than what the NDP market currently has to offer with full transparency into how they were made and who made them.
In keeping with that transparency: yes, a number of these producers are my clients here at Two-Nineteen, so writing an article like this may seem incredibly self-serving (which it is). At the same time, as someone who prides himself in understanding where the market is headed and what constitutes value for the consumer, there’s a reason I aligned my company with these producers years ago. Like many of these craft whiskey distillers, I too have been waiting for this day to come. As someone who truly believes in the greatness of great distillers, I’ve been anticipating this moment for years.
I’ve been longing for the day when Todd Leopold from Leopold Bros could release a new 8 year old 55% ABV cask strength Bourbon with an MSRP of $59.99 that blows everything else at that pricepoint out of the water. I’ve been biding my time patiently, holding back the excitement bubbling up inside of me, each time I make the drive to Atwater, CA and taste David Souza’s 9+ year old rye whiskies from Corbin Cash that are among the best ryes I’ve ever tasted at any age—period.
Given what I know about modern whiskey consumers—their passion for quality, their desire for integrity, and their continual struggle for fair pricing in the boutique market—I have to believe that whiskies like these from serious “craft” producers are going to cause a sensation when they finally launch because, not only are they unique and delicious, they’re part of a larger storyline. They speak to a rugged individualism, a spirit of independence, and a determination of character that cannot be altered by market trends and social media fads. These whiskies are the embodiment of everything that excited us back in 2012, except this time around they will absolutely deliver for the price—far beyond what we’re seeing in the NDP market currently.
And these are the just the producers I’m working with!
How many other small distillers are out there, sitting on 8+ year old American whiskies, ready to hit the ground running in 2024 with a great product at a great price? I have no idea. The only thing I’m positive about is this: 2024 will be the year that the idea of American craft whiskey finally begins to deliver on its promise. Because I know of at least two producers who are going to knock your socks off very soon, and once the cat is out of the bag, there’s no putting it back in. The market will have no choice but to adjust to a new reality.
-David Driscoll